As we settle into 2026 and face record-breaking freezing temperatures in Toronto, it feels appropriate to reflect on what we are seeing in the real estate market so far this year.
Since the founding of Milborne Real Estate almost 50 years ago, we have experienced eight major real estate cycles. That experience has taught us many lessons, but one stands out above all: never bet against the GTA real estate market. Every downturn, regardless of its length or severity, has ultimately been followed by recovery and continued long-term appreciation. Over time, GTA real estate has consistently outpaced inflation, enabling property owners to preserve and grow their net worth.
We have also learned that the market recovers from both ends — from the top down and from the bottom up.
Over the past two quarters, the Milborne Group has sold several high-end new condominium residences ranging from $8.5M to $13.4M. These included both newly completed homes and pre-construction residences scheduled for completion in the coming years. This segment of the market is largely driven by end users who typically require minimal financing and tend to be more resilient during market downturns.
At the same time, we are seeing increased activity in suburban markets such as Halton, Guelph, and Hamilton. In these areas, demand is strongest in the $400,000 to $650,000 price range. Buyers are primarily first-time purchasers, value-focused investors, and downsizers transitioning into condominiums as part of their next phase of life.
Smart developers have moved on from 2021–2022 pricing expectations and have adjusted to meet current market demand. Those who have repriced accordingly are already benefiting from slowly accelerating sales.
Timing the peak or bottom of the market in advance is virtually impossible. In hindsight, it is clear that Q4 2021 marked the peak, and evidence suggests that Q4 2025 represented the market bottom. Much like spring, signs of recovery are now in the air.
March 18 marks the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement. Our view is that the likelihood of a rate cut is higher than maintaining the status quo, particularly given recent unemployment figures and job losses in the manufacturing sector stemming from tariff-related uncertainty.
Buyers should be taking advantage of increased inventory, more attractive pricing, and easing interest rates. This represents one of the best buying opportunities we have seen in years.
Congratulations to the buyers who are stepping forward with confidence, and to the developers who have faced reality head-on and adjusted pricing to meet an evolving market.